Economics

Prof. David Autor speaks with CNBC about how Chinese industrial policies could impact the United States. “The U.S. needs to recognize that it would be much more effective if it worked with its allies,” says Autor. 

Writing for The New York Times, Prof. David Autor and Prof. Gordon Hanson of Harvard explore how China is “aggressively contesting the innovative sectors where the United States has long been the unquestioned leader." To avoid a second China Shock, they emphasize that the United States “must nourish industries that have high potential for innovation, funded by joint investments by the private and public sectors.” 

Prof. David Autor speaks with ABC News reporter Max Zahn about how AI will affect the job market. "We're not good at predicting what the new work will be; we're good at predicting how current work will change," says Autor.

Prof. Simon Johnson speaks with Planet Money host Robert Smith about the role institutions play in prosperity gaps in different countries. “I think democracy is absolutely essential for shared prosperity, because if power isn't widely shared across society, in any kind of authoritarian system, you're going to have a situation where, you might have a good ruler or a pro-growth ruler for a while,” says Johnson. “But then they're going to get cranky. They're going to die and pass it on to somebody else who's really not good for growth. So authoritarian rulers are highly unreliable in terms of sustained prosperity." 

Prof. Danielle Li speaks with New York Times reporter Noam Scheiber about the various impacts of AI in the workplace on employees. “That state of the world is not good for experienced workers,” says Li. “You’re being paid for the rarity of your skill, and what happens is that A.I. allows the skill to live outside of people.”

A new research paper by Prof. David Autor and Principal Research Scientist Neil Thompson explores the forthcoming impact of AI on jobs, reports Tim Harford for Financial Times. “[W]hile there are few certainties, Autor and Thompson’s framework does suggest a clarifying question: does AI look like it is going to do the most highly skilled part of your job or the low-skill rump that you’ve not been able to get rid of?,” writes Harford. “The answer to that question may help to predict whether your job is about to get more fun or more annoying — and whether your salary is likely to rise, or fall as your expert work is devalued like the expert work of the Luddites.” 

Prof. David Autor joins Possible podcast hosts Reid Hoffman and Aria Finger to discuss everything from the cross-country road trip that helped inspire his research focused on technology, work and inequality to how AI might impact American workers. Autor notes that if AI technologies are implemented in the best way possible for humankind, “we would give people more secure and fulfilling work. We would give them more access to education and access to better healthcare, everywhere. And those things alone would improve welfare in so many dimensions. Not just in terms of material standard living, not just in comfort, but investing in our kids, creating opportunity for the next generation.”

A new book edited by Prof. Gary Gensler and Prof. Simon Johnson examines the current administration’s impact on the global economy and how new policies could lead to “a profound weakening of both US economic dynamism and the global system it once led,” reports Sam Sutton for Politico.

Prof. Jonathan Gruber speaks with Newsweek reporter Jasmine Laws about the increase in cigarette taxes in various states across the United States. “There is a large body of economic evidence that shows that higher taxes will reduce smoking – particularly among the young and the poor,” says Gruber. “The downside is that the poor will pay more for cigarettes, stretching their budgets, but that is largely offset by the fact that they will smoke less. If the revenues are used to fund smoking cessation efforts among the poor, which have shown to be effective, this is a great policy opportunity." 

Prof. Gary Gensler speaks with Bloomberg Surveillance about his new book examining the potential economic impacts of current policies in Washington. “I don’t think the tariffs are going to help,” says Gensler. “I think they’re going to hurt and interestingly they’re going to particularly hurt also in rural communities because rural communities have to sell their farm goods and they’re agricultural products overseas.” 

Prof. Daron Acemoglu speaks with Salon reporter Russell Payne to explain how “the calculations made by the current generation of AI are fundamentally different from how humans think.” Acemoglu explains: “The more talk of artificial super intelligence we have, the more of a boost these companies get, especially in terms of being able to raise funding, in terms of being in the spotlight and high status, high ability to convince others.” 

Prof. David Autor speaks with Wired reporter Will Knight about the anticipated impact of AI on employment. “If demand for software were like demand for colonoscopies, no improvement in speed or reduction in costs would create a mad rush for the proctologist's office,” says Autor. “But if demand for software is like demand for taxi services, then we may see an Uber effect on coding: more people writing more code at lower prices, and lower wages.” 

Prof. Simon Johnson speaks with Wired reporter Paresh Dave about the financial and social cost of AI implantation in the workforce, making the case that governments should lower payroll taxes for entry-level roles to encourage hiring and help humans build careers. “The right lever to pull is one that reduces costs to employers,” says Johnson.  

Postdoc Isabella Loaiza speaks with ABC News reporter Max Zahn about her study examining how jobs and tasks across the U.S. economy shifted between 2016-2024. Loaiza and her colleagues found that “rather than dispense with qualities like critical thinking and empathy, workplace technology heightened the need for workers who exhibit those attributes,” Zahn explains. “It is true we’re seeing AI having an impact on white-collar work instead of more blue-collar work,” says Loaiza. “We found that jobs that are very human-intensive are probably more robust.” 

Prof. Daron Acemoglu, Prof. Peter Diamond and Prof. Simon Johnson are among the six Nobel laureate economists that warn the “massive budget bill passed by Housemakers last month… would weaken key safety-net programs while greatly lifting the federal debt,” reports Alain Sherter for CBS News. The economists also said that “large tax cuts under the legislation, combined with the hits to Medicaid and food stamps, would increase inequality,” writes Sherter.